Sea Change: What New Pentagon Plans Could Mean for Tartans
Joseph Bunyard
On October 21, then-Secretary of Defense (SECDEF), Mark Esper unveiled Battle Force 2045, an ambitious plan that leverages disruptive technologies to grow the US Navy. Esper borrowed from renowned naval strategists Alfred Thayer Mahan’s masterwork The Influence of Sea Power upon History in asserting that “command of the sea” is of the utmost importance in great power competition. Consequently, Battle Force 2045 calls for the Navy to grow, through investments in autonomous platforms, from a fleet of 300 manned ships to a hybrid fleet of 500 ships by 2045.
To be clear, growing the Navy’s fleet by more than 200 ships (some will be retired) in 25 years is unprecedented during peacetime. Mobilizing the defense industrial base to meet this timeline will require a premium, which does not include the added research and development costs associated with autonomous systems and their command and control networks. In short, the Department of Defense is on the verge of investing the kind of money that only the government can in the research, development, and production of multi-mission semi-autonomous and autonomous submersibles, surface vehicles, and aerial systems.
Carnegie Mellon consistently ranks among the top three schools in the country for Computer Science and its various subspecialties. If anyone is well positioned to take advantage of increased government spending in automated and autonomous systems, it should be Tartans. If Battle Force 2045 receives Congressional buy-in, big names in defense will quickly mobilize to meet the demand. In fact, Huntington Ingalls Industries and Lockheed Martin are already acquiring companies that specialize in autonomous systems and space-based networks in anticipation of new Pentagon contracts. In FY2021 alone, the Navy requested almost $580 million for the research and development of unmanned surface ships, with $2.7 billion in funding planned for their fleet integration over the next five years.
While Congressional buy-in to Battle Force 2045 is not a given, the plan marks a clear demand signal from the Pentagon for more autonomous systems and command and control infrastructure. If Battle Force 2045 is passed into law as a part of the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, we can expect Washington to pay a premium for the quick procurement of cutting-edge technology. Even if calls to cut defense spending succeed, the Department of Defense — the primary recipient of discretionary federal spending — will retain the ability to shift funds from costly “legacy platforms” to unmanned systems. In any case, Tartans likely stand to benefit from the Navy’s unprecedented expansion.
Joseph Bunyard first year graduate student in Carnegie Mellon’s Master of Information Technology Strategy program. His interests include emerging technology, information security, and defense modernization. He joined The Triple Helix to connect with students who share similar interests in an open, professional dialogue.
